A series of data released by South Korea's national statistics office shows that births, second-quarter births, and first-half births all rose year on year in June and the first half of this year, hitting a seven-year high. This phenomenon has attracted widespread attention: Is this the release of previously pent-up demand, or a genuine surge in baby-making willingness?
Kim Yun-jun, a South Korean scholar, noted that the year-on-year increase in newborn data is a welcome phenomenon, but one should be wary of interpreting a short-term data rebound as the easing of a crisis.
Specifically, South Korea's June births were 23,100, a year-on-year increase of 3,115, a rise of 15.6%, the highest on record since statistics began in 1981. This means South Korea's monthly birth count has now increased for 24 consecutive months, with June births reaching the highest for the same month in nearly seven years. Second-quarter births were 70,791, a year-on-year increase of 9,675, a rise of 15.8%. Second-quarter births also hit a seven-year high for the same period, with the growth rate reaching a historical record. In the first half of this year, South Korea's cumulative births were 145,804, a year-on-year increase of 19,430, a rise of 15.4%, also the highest for the same period in nearly seven years, with both scale increase and growth rate setting historical records.
This positive trend in South Korea's population continues the growth momentum from last year. South Korea's 2025 newborn count grew 6.7% year on year, reaching 254,300, the highest since 2021's 260,600. Meanwhile, South Korea's total fertility rate rose by 0.05 to 0.8. South Korea had long been trapped in the world's lowest fertility rate dilemma, with the total fertility rate falling to a historical low of 0.72 in 2023. From July 2024, births began their current upward trajectory, now having continued for two years. Some analysts expect South Korea's annual total fertility rate to return to 0.9 this year for the first time in seven years, though this figure remains far below the 2.1 needed for generational replacement and population stability.
Kim Yun-jun analyzed that South Korea's marriage and childbearing are highly linked, meaning childbearing completely depends on marriage. Since 2024, the number of marriages in South Korea has been continuously rising, becoming an important driving force for subsequent low-fertility rate reversal. In the first half of this year, South Korea's cumulative marriage registrations were 124,300 couples, up 5.5% year on year. But he also noted that the background is more about a base demographic dividend of childbearing-age population and the release of pent-up marriage demand from the pandemic period, rather than a fundamental reversal of social attitudes. Economic pressures facing young people — such as high housing prices, household debt, and workplace — have not been completely improved. Therefore, one should be wary of interpreting a short-term data rebound as the easing of a crisis. Whether the follow-up dividend will fade requires continued observation.
