From a short-term trading perspective, gold prices face clear downside pressures. Currently, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated at 5.22%, continuously diverting funds away from gold. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold prices are highly sensitive to U.S. interest rates and monetary policy trends; high yields significantly raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing some short-term capital to exit the gold market and flow back into bonds.
Global monetary policy has yet to see a substantial turn, and expectations of Fed rate cuts have swung back and forth, intensifying market volatility. Amid multiple bearish factors, gold is unlikely to embark on a sustained one-sided rally and will most likely remain in a high-level range-bound fluctuation. The alternation of long and short positions and rapid swings between gains and losses will become more pronounced, and deepening market divergence further amplifies the uncertainty of the short-term trend.
Major institutions hold diametrically opposite views on gold's short-term trend, and the debate continues to heat up. Some institutions believe this round of gold's rise lacks sustained monetary policy support, that a trend reversal has not yet been established, and that the continuity of the short-term move is in doubt, with the risk of a high-level pullback not to be ignored. But leading institutions remain bullish; UBS, for instance, has explicitly given a long-term forecast, expecting gold to potentially challenge the $5,000 per ounce mark in the first half of 2027.
