AlixPartners' 'Global Automotive Market Outlook,' cited by Beijing Daily on September 5, 2026, predicts that by 2030 only about 7 of China's 30 NEV-focused vehicle makers will reach break-even, signaling an intensifying shakeout.
The report notes that the auto manufacturing profit margin fell to a historic low of 3.2% in the first quarter of 2026, with the price war's backlash clearly visible. Analysts argue that differentiation and overseas expansion are the main paths out of the squeeze, as homogeneous competition erodes margins across the board.
The assessment reframes the industry's contest from a sales-volume race to a profit-and-loss race, pressuring makers to prove sustainable unit economics rather than just scale - a theme echoed across this year's half-year earnings season.
Image: Electric bicycle and scooter charging station in Wuhan. Source: Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).
