On September 18, the CPCA released its September market outlook, estimating narrow-sense passenger-car retail at about 1.69 million units—up 9.7% month on month but down 24.6% year on year against a high 2025 base of 2.241 million units.
By energy type, NEV retail is expected to reach about 1.11 million units, with penetration projected at 65.7%—surpassing August's 65.2% record and setting a new high. In the first 13 days of September, NEV retail hit 362,000 units with penetration at 70.3%, while the broader market retailed 515,000 units, down 23% year on year.
CPCA secretary-general Cui Dongshu noted that with the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays approaching, some demand is expected to be released early, and the market remains in recovery under trade-in subsidies and terminal promotions. Headstream manufacturers—over 70% of sales—raised September retail targets by less than 10% versus August, weaker than the usual quarter-end seasonal pattern, reflecting more rational expectations. Roughly two of every three cars sold are now electric.
Source: CPCA / NetEase / Sina Finance
