China's new-energy vehicle (NEV) sector is displaying a sharp "ice-and-fire" split: domestic retail is cooling while exports are booming, Sina Finance reported on October 26. The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) estimated on October 23 that nationwide narrow-sense passenger-car retail in October would reach about 1.6 million units, down 28.9% year on year, with NEV retail at about 1.07 million and a penetration rate near 66.9%.
Although NEVs now account for nearly 70% of the domestic passenger-car market, volumes are not rising with the share. In September, domestic NEV passenger-car retail fell 16.7% year on year, and the first three quarters cumulatively declined 12.8%. Exports tell the opposite story: in the first three quarters, China's NEV passenger-car exports reached 3.887 million units, up 138.8% year on year, with September alone at 558,000 units, up 163.5% — equivalent to about one-third of the same period's wholesale sales.
Production and wholesale have held up even as domestic demand softens: in the first three quarters, NEV passenger-car output hit 11.413 million units (+9.7%) and wholesale 11.448 million (+9.4%). September NEV passenger-car exports alone (558,000) equaled 36% of that month's manufacturer sales, versus 19% a year earlier. Overseas markets have become the single biggest engine supporting NEV sales growth.
Analysts note the divergence shows the industry's next phase hinges on balancing scale with sustainable operations and genuine user value, as exports offset soft domestic consumption.
Source: Sina Finance / CPCA
