The China Passenger Car Association's data for the first 11 days of October show national passenger-vehicle retail of 459,000 units, down 24% year on year, of which NEV retail was 281,000 units, down 13%, with a retail penetration of 61.2%. NEVs were not spared the decline, only with a smaller drop. By week, the first week's daily retail fell 25% but the second week recovered to 58,000 units per day, narrowing the decline to 22%.
Three explanations circulate for the weak opening. First, a high base: last year's trade-in subsidies were concentrated in the period, lifting sales. Second, the 2026 subsidy shifted from a fixed amount to a percentage (12% of vehicle price, capped at 20,000 yuan), reducing actual subsidies for low-priced cars and prompting wait-and-see among first-time buyers. Third, the Mid-Autumn holiday in late September and National Day travel reduced showroom traffic.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, judged the downturn a short-term mix of policy disturbance and a high base rather than a peak in auto penetration, while warning that September's weak domestic sales may persist for months. But if the domestic market is "ice," exports are "fire."
In September, vehicle exports hit 1.053 million units, up 61.4%, of which NEVs were 571,000 units, up 157.2% — the fourth straight month above 1 million. In the first three quarters, vehicle exports reached 8.205 million units, up 65.8%, with NEVs at 4.006 million, up 127.9%. NEV exports have become the main engine of China's auto export growth.
Source: OFweek
