Data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that from September 1 to 27, national passenger-car retail reached 1.258 million units, down 29% year on year, of which new-energy retail reached 827,000 units — an NEV penetration rate of about 65.7%. Under pressure on total volumes, the market is structurally diverging: traditional fuel vehicles are accelerating discounts to clear inventory while new-energy models launch in dense waves.
Guomao Futures research notes that domestic passenger-car consumption remains weak, residents' purchase intent is insufficient, and automakers rely on price promotions to pull orders, with exports becoming an important support as independent brands keep exploring overseas markets to hedge against slumping domestic demand. Looking ahead, the "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring staged production and sales recovery, but it will be hard to reverse the full-year weak pattern.
Industry analyst Zhang Xiang observed that China's auto market has entered a phase of stock competition, with sales mainly supported by replacement and additional purchases, while the electrification and intelligent transformation has greatly accelerated NEV iteration — new-model releases are no longer bound by traditional seasonal patterns. For consumers, the concentrated launches mean more unhurried choice, and for automakers, the peak-season battle is no longer about launch-event noise but about converting showroom traffic into orders with product strength.
Source: CPCA / Global Times / Guomao Futures
