The price of lithium carbonate futures crashed 11.79% in a single session to 104,680 yuan per tonne, nearly halving from the mid-May peak in under half a year. Goldman Sachs expects China's spot lithium carbonate price to fall to around 100,000 yuan per tonne in 2027 and to about 84,000 yuan per tonne in 2028.
According to the forecast, the global lithium market will shift from a supply shortfall of 404,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 444,000 tonnes in 2028, as new overseas projects come online while Chinese capacity continues to expand.
The sharp drop in raw material costs is widely seen as positive for battery makers and vehicle manufacturers further down the chain, supporting margin recovery in the midstream and downstream segments. Battery makers benefit directly from lower input costs, while automakers see improved margins on existing price levels or greater room for competitive pricing.
At the same time, the decline is changing the competitive calculus across the industry. Producers with high-cost capacity face sustained pressure, and the market is expected to see further consolidation. Analysts noted that the cost decline, combined with the reduction in NEV export VAT rebates from 13% to 9% effective April 2027, sets up a period in which exporters must balance short-term shipment pushes against long-term pressure to localize production overseas.
Source: Interface News / Shanghai Securities News / Securities Times
