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Gold: the US Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate at 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh consecutive time, in line with expectations. Chair Powell said the Fed is prepared to act if employment weakens unexpectedly, but it is not yet time to announce a rate-cut date. US May CPI came in at 3.3% y/y and core CPI at 3.4%, both slightly below expectations. With the non-US-asset logic of gold intact, the center of gold prices is expected to keep upward elasticity, supported by safe-haven demand if easing is delayed.
Industrial metals - copper: rate-cut expectations cooled and copper prices traded weakly and fluctuating. Global copper inventories fell 7,900 t week-on-week to 669,000 t; domestic social inventories fell 13,800 t while LME stocks rose 9,900 t. Copper concentrate TC remained basically stable. Aluminum: global aluminum inventories were 1.898 million t, down 31,000 t w/w. The average domestic electrolytic aluminum cost was 17,711 yuan/t with a profit of 2,526 yuan/t. Supply increased in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia, and property/auto/PV policies support end consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to run stable-to-weak short term, with long-term upward elasticity from rigid capacity.
Energy metals - lithium: battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 4.0% to 97,000 yuan/t. The EU proposed temporary tariffs of 17%-38% on Chinese EV imports from July 4, creating uncertainty; cost support is strengthening and lithium prices are expected to stabilize short term. Metal silicon: southwest hydropower tariffs fell in the wet season, weakening cost support; total inventories stood at 382,600 t and silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at low levels.